Ken Borland

South Africa are safely through the pool stages of the World Cup and now the crunch end of the tournament arrives with the knockout games. For the Proteas, that means a quarterfinal most probably against Sri Lanka at the Sydney Cricket Ground on Wednesday.

There is a possibility, however, that South Africa might have to play Australia in the quarterfinals, in Adelaide. If Australia’s match against Scotland in Hobart today is washed out, then the hosts will finish third in Pool A because Sri Lanka will have four wins as opposed to three for Australia.

South Africa are 99.9% certain of finishing second in Pool B because if Pakistan beat Ireland in Adelaide tomorrow for their fourth win of the group stage, then they will have do it by more than 500 runs or chase down their target in less than 10 overs to give themselves a better net run-rate than the Proteas.

So, working on the assumption that it will be Sri Lanka standing in the way of South Africa, how do the Proteas go about winning a knockout game at the World Cup for the first time?

Firstly, selection will be crucial and, for me, it comes down to either Vernon Philander or Farhaan Behardien at number seven.

Whoever coach Russell Domingo includes out of those two, Rilee Rossouw has to play and should open with Hashim Amla.

AB de Villiers may have backed Quinton de Kock publically – it’s another display of saying it until you believe it by the captain following him once again saying “South Africa are the best team in the tournament” – but our patience has run out after just 53 runs in six innings by the wicketkeeper. For the good of the team in a do-or-die game, De Villiers needs to keep however reluctant he is.

Most tellingly, De Kock has been out to the same delivery in all six innings – length outside off stump – and his dismissals have all been caught: at mid-off, mid-off, cover and three-in-a-row caught behind. So Sri Lanka know exactly where to bowl to continue the left-hander’s poor run of form.

The rugga buggers, who have two World Cup crowns to boast about, will tell you that when it comes to the pinnacle of international sport, any weak link is immediately targeted. You can’t have a dodgy prop or a defensively poor flyhalf if you’re going to be world champions.

Similarly, South Africa can’t have JP Duminy as a fifth bowler, delivering 10 overs. The off-spinner has only bowled 21 overs in four matches, conceding 6.19 runs-per-over, so he needs someone to help him share the load.

Against a strong batting side like Sri Lanka, on an SCG pitch where they scored 312 against Australia, and South Africa made 408 for five against the West Indies, I would go with five frontline bowlers and play Philander and Kyle Abbott.

One of those five is bound to be targeted and have an off-day, leaving Duminy to pick up the remainder of his overs.

To pull the rug out from under Sri Lanka’s feet, the Proteas are clearly going to have to dismiss Kumar Sangakkara and Tillekeratne Dilshan cheaply. The only problem is they average 45.89 and 47.09 respectively against South Africa.

The only drawback from playing five frontline bowlers is that it leaves South Africa with only six specialist batsmen and their supporters know only too well how vulnerable they are when chasing in World Cups.

That may favour Behardien playing ahead of Abbott. I am a fan of the Titans batsman having seen his finishing ability numerous times at franchise level; but I fear Sangakkara, Dilshan, Mahela Jayawardene and Angelo Mathews hitting him and Duminy out the park and the Proteas having to chase over 300 as a result.

Dale Steyn became the quickest to 400 Test wickets in terms of the number of deliveries bowled at the weekend and former Proteas star and Highveld Lions stalwart Neil McKenzie had some advice for the many batsmen who have fallen to the great fast bowler’s skills and the many who will try and play him in future.

McKenzie, who played 58 Tests and occasionally crossed swords with Steyn on the domestic circuit, said the key to facing the fiery 32-year-old lay in punishing the few bad balls that come your way and being able to handle the short-pitched delivery.

“Of course the batsman is always up against it against Dale, but if you can jump all over the occasional bad ball that comes your way then it helps release the pressure. You’ve also got to be able to play the short ball well because Dale uses that a lot. He has more of a skiddy bouncer, but he uses it to take away the batsman’s feet and the follow-up ball or two deliveries later is often the one that gets the wicket. So the feet have to be working well,” McKenzie told The Citizen.

The scorer of more than 19 000 first-class runs and maker of centuries in England, India, Bangladesh, the Netherlands, Zimbabwe, New Zealand, Australia, Sri Lanka and South Africa said what made Steyn special as a bowler was his ability to even be a threat on true batting pitches.

“What makes Dale such a great bowler is that he has weapons for whatever pitch, whatever the conditions are. If the pitch is seaming, he can obviously use that, if there’s bounce he uses that, if there’s swing he’s a master of moving it both ways, both conventional and reverse swing. If the pitch is slow or flat, then he has the skills to still be dangerous. That’s the ultimate bowler, McKenzie said.

Kagiso Rabada has made the most sensational start to a Proteas ODI career since Allan Donald exploded on to the international stage when South Africa returned to world cricket in Kolkata in November 1991, and the former national bowling coach says he believes the 20-year-old prodigy is only going to get better and better.

Due to Apartheid, Donald was already 25 years old when he took five for 29 against India, but Rabada claimed the world record for best figures on ODI debut with his six for 16, including a top-order hat-trick, against Bangladesh in Dhaka.

Donald became one of the greatest bowlers the world has seen, but began his career as a young tearaway with pace to burn, but who was often erratic in terms of control. Rabada’s greatest attribute seems to be his control, at good pace, which is extraordinary for one so young.

“His overall skill just blows me away and even his control is exceptional, it’s a bit freakish. I still think he’s going to get quicker and it stands him in good stead that he’s grooving that control for when the extra pace comes later. He’s already ahead of where he should be, his rhythm is good, he’s tall, athletic and can bowl a heavy ball, and when you combine all of that together, as he grows into his body he’s definitely going to get faster,” Donald told The Citizen at the launch of the Titans’ and Nashua’s Art of Fast Bowling Programme at the weekend.

Rabada came into the national squad last summer when Donald was still the bowling coach, and the spearhead of South Africa’s return to international cricket says the St Stithians product is an absolute pleasure to work with.

“You can just sit back and watch him, his action, ability, athleticism, I don’t have a bad thing to say about him. He has a wonderful work ethic which makes a coach’s job so much easier, he wants to compete so badly and he asks a lot of great questions, which you don’t normally get from a 20-year-old. I just loved him, he’s well-grounded and full of humility as well.

“And he has a natural action, there’s absolutely no need to interfere with that. It’s clean, uncomplicated and all in sync. Are we looking at a legend? I’m pretty sure we are,” Donald said.

The successful series against the West Indies did answer a few questions about the Proteas as they head into the World Cup, but a couple of glaring question marks remain – such as why the bowlers insist on banging the ball in halfway down the pitch so often?

Bowling coach Allan Donald was quoted as saying this week “I’d rather not have that many yorkers at the back end … at the World Cup, we want to be unpredictable in the last 10 overs and that is not going to be about bowling 40 yorkers in the last 10 overs.”

Not bowling yorkers is also becoming predictable, however, for this attack.

While the South African bowlers were generally dominant against the eighth-ranked West Indies – and let’s be honest, their batting was largely woeful – it was alarming to see how exposed the Proteas were once again in the death overs when Andre Russell, Darren Sammy and the tail took the tourists to an unlikely victory in the fourth ODI in Port Elizabeth.

The West Indies top-order was barely a factor through the series, meaning they were under pressure every time they batted; how will South Africa’s attack fare against much stronger batting line-ups at the World Cup, especially if the pitches are flat, without the luxury of early wickets?

Kyle Abbott was particularly disappointing in the series – taking just two wickets for 121 runs, conceded at a rate of 7.33 per over. It was depressing to see someone who had previously shown such skill in finding the blockhole, banging the ball in short and getting regularly smashed – perhaps Donald’s comments have something to do with that? There was surely a message in the second of those Abbott wickets coming from a full, straight delivery that bowled Marlon Samuels at Centurion.

Lady Luck has not been kind to South Africa in previous World Cups, but she tends to favour teams that are tactically astute, hard-working and gifted. The Proteas are certainly dedicated to their craft and in terms of talent we only need to mention AB de Villiers, Hashim Amla and Dale Steyn, so no issues there.

But while the batting looks so powerful – Rilee Rossouw adding his name into the mix of potential match-winners – their bowling remains vulnerable due to the current strategic thinking and I have a feeling opposing teams will back themselves to chase down whatever target South Africa set by putting them under pressure in the field.

The balance of the team – without a genuine all-rounder – is out, so JP Duminy and Farhaan Behardien have to share 10 overs or someone like Vernon Philander or Wayne Parnell has to bat seven.

That fifth-bowler portion will certainly be targeted by the opposition and sides like India and Australia will probably have a go at Morne Morkel and Philander as well.

Immersed in the pressure of a knockout game, how cool can Morkel stay? His display under the pump in Port Elizabeth suggests the portents are not that good, while Philander, at no more than fast-medium pace and generally sticking to line-and-length, could also be vulnerable.

The positives, however, are that South Africa, with Dale Steyn and Imran Tahir, are better than most at taking wickets in the middle overs and there will be no more feared batting line-up at the World Cup.

The bookies are hawking odds of between 3/1 and 13/3 on South Africa winning the World Cup, but they are only second favourites behind Australia – who range from 2/1 to 13/4 to win their fifth title.

There are a million different scenarios that could play out – and South Africa have historically provided the weirdest of those – but I will be hugely frustrated if the Proteas post 350-8 in a semi-final and then lose by three wickets in the final over as Duminy/Behardien travel for 90 runs in their 10 combined overs and Morkel and Philander concede 75 each.

Ryan McLaren or David Wiese are not part of the squad to provide a genuine fifth bowling option and from what we’ve seen from the West Indies series, South Africa are not going to be able to stray too far from their first-choice attack.

Which is not entirely a bad thing. Barring the number seven position, South Africa are a settled combination, going to Australasia with confidence and not many teams will fancy taking them on.